TJ36.1 Advancing NCEP Operational HWRF Modeling System for Next Generation Tropical Prediction Capabilities

Wednesday, 9 January 2013: 10:30 AM
Room 9C (Austin Convention Center)
Vijay Tallapragada, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD

Starting with 2012 hurricane season, NCEP operational atmosphere-ocean coupled Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) modeling system has been run at a cloud-permitting 3km horizontal resolution near the hurricane core with explicit representation of convective processes. Evaluation of real-time operational HWRF forecasts for 2012 hurricane season for Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins is expected to show significantly improved track, intensity and structure prediction compared to earlier versions of the operational HWRF.

This presentation will focus on describing the next-generation efforts in advancing the HWRF modeling system for improved tropical cyclone prediction capabilities, with emphasis on multi-nesting in a basin-scale domain to track multiple storms, advanced hybrid EnKF-VAR data assimilation with improved use of satellite radiances in all weather conditions, improved physics to address rapid intensity changes and relevant structure changes, and landfall related storm surge and inundation forecasts. Further improvements in tropical cyclone track, intensity and structure prediction skills will continue to be the major focus areas. These efforts are carried out in collaboration with several NOAA and academic partners, and with the support from NOAA's Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project.

NCEP Operational HWRF is also providing experimental real-time forecasts for the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean regions in support of JTWC and India Meteorological Department. Future efforts will include expanding on the international collaborations to make HWRF a truly global tropical prediction model.

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