Assessing Lagrangian coherent structures and uncertainties using RELO ensemble system in the Gulf of Mexico
Repelling and attracting LCSs, which represent the stable and unstable manifolds and have large impacts on the ocean tracer dispersion such as oil spills in the GOM, are identified by using the finite-time Lyapunov exponents. The uncertainties of LCSs are assessed using the RELO ensemble. The advantages of using an ensemble over a single forecast in predicting the Lagrangian trajectories in GOM are demonstrated. The impacts of the ensemble spread and model resolutions on Lagrangian predictions are studied.