Toward a Global Air-Ocean-Wave-Ice Prediction Capability

This paper describes present and planned capabilities for regional and global scale air-ocean-wave-ice forecasting systems using the Navy's Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) system. The Naval Research Laboratory Oceanography Division has transitioned the Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System (ACNFS) to operations at the Naval Oceanographic Office. The ACNFS is a regional two-way coupled Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF)-based system comprised of the Hybrid Community Ocean Model (HYCOM) and the Community Ice Code (CICE) extending from 40°N to the pole where it has a 3.5 km resolution. The ACNFS is used by the National Ice Center for guidance and assimilates available in situ and satellite data. NRL has a new effort underway in which the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) is being extended by adding the CICE model to the relocatable system. We envision running COAMPS-CICE in areas such as the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas at resolutions ranging from 1-5 km. On a global scale, as part of the Earth System Predictive Capability (ESPC), efforts are underway to develop and test a fully coupled global air-ocean-wave-ice system using HYCOM, CICE, WaveWatch III and the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM). We will also discuss new initiatives to develop satellite-derived (e.g., CryoSat-2) ice and snow thickness data for assimilation into the CICE model.