The Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique: Advancing from NAWIPS to AWIPS II

When aircraft reconnaissance is absent, forecasters rely heavily on satellite imagery as well as a hurricane intensity prediction technique developed by Vernon Dvorak, called the Dvorak Technique (DT). For more than 40 years, the DT has been enhanced and modified to accurately predict hurricane intensity. The primary objective of this research is to determine the accuracy of the Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique (AODT), one of the modified versions of the DT. The calculations of the AODT are compared between the soon-to-be implemented Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS II) and the legacy National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-AWIPS (NAWIPS) software visualization systems to ensure correct implementation of AODT in AWIPS II. Hurricane Carlotta and Hurricane Chris are case studies used to assist in ascertaining the accuracy of AWIPS II, as well as establishing whether there is a precision difference when predicting the tropical cyclone’s (TC) intensity in the Atlantic Ocean or Pacific Ocean basins. AWIPS II AODT will be analyzed against the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) operational TC intensity data, the National Environmental Satellite Data Information Service (NESDIS) Satellite Analysis Branch’s (SAB) Subjective Dvorak Technique, and the NAWIPS AODT.