Lightning-Potential Forecast Sensitivity to Microphysics in the WRF Model

Lightning poses a threat to personnel and equipment involved in outdoor testing at the ranges of the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command (ATEC). For tactical and strategic guidance a short-term lightning potential is being predicted with the National Center for Atmospheric Research's (NCAR's) Auto-Nowcaster, and a longer-term lightning potential is being predicted with NCAR's Four Dimensional Weather (4DWX) system. 4DWX uses the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model as its predictive core and assimilates data through the Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation (FDDA) system. The longer-term lightning potential forecasts are computed for each grid cell based on microphysical and dynamical model output. For two ranges, White Sands Missile Range in NM and Redstone Test Center in AL, the sensitivity of these lightning potential forecasts to different model microphysics schemes is being explored. The presentation will review results from spring and summer months of 2012.