Sunday, 6 January 2013
Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)
Producing blowing snow and visibility forecasts for severe winter storms poses a significant challenge to numerical models. Changing the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes in numerical weather models may improve the forecast for blizzard conditions, but it is uncertain how much the forecast is dependent on different PBL parameterization schemes. The study examines five experiments, each with a different PBL scheme, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for a winter storm that occurred 11-12 Dec 2010 in the upper Midwest. Of the five experiments, the MYJ does not produce any blizzard conditions, while the MYNN and ACM2 provide the most accurate forecast of blizzard conditions with a significant area of surface winds 15-17 m s-1 in western Iowa. Liquid precipitation and model visibility are also considered. Although very similar over areas with widespread blizzard conditions, MYJ and QNSE produce accurate maximum precipitation forecasts with 55 mm. The model visibility does not show any significant changes from scheme to scheme.
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