S78 On the Modeled Development and Maintenance of Hurricane Earl's Warm Core during Rapid Intensification

Sunday, 6 January 2013
Exhibit Hall 3 (Austin Convention Center)
Joshua J. Alland, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and T. C. Chen, S. Gopalakrishnan, T. Quirino, and X. Zhang

Handout (1.4 MB)

Forecasting tropical cyclone (TC) intensification remains difficult despite research efforts to improve numerical weather prediction models. In order to increase model performance, it is important to better understand the processes leading to intensification of TCs. Rapid intensification (RI) is associated with a TC's internal structure. In order to better predict RI, this study aims to examine the internal structure of Hurricane Earl in the eye, eyewall, and outer rainband during pre-RI, RI, and post-RI. 138 dropsondes were analyzed to determine how the vertical thermodynamic profile differs spatially and temporally. The dropsonde observations were also compared to the vertical thermodynamic profile and wind structure of the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) System to observe and analyze the influence of model inaccuracies on the modeled forecast. Currently, the results of this study are inconclusive, but a final analysis will be completed before the national AMS conference.
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