Development and validation of low level wind flow and fire weather parameters using a high resolution WRF model in the Black Hills

The Black Hills are a small and isolated mountain range located in Western South Dakota and parts of Northeastern Wyoming, with its highest peak above 7,200 feet. The topography and land surface of the Black Hills can create complicated wind flows that are difficult to forecast even with high resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The South Dakota School of Mines and Technology (SDSM&T) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been designed to forecast wind flow patterns around the Black Hills as well as forecasting fire weather parameters. High resolution models, such as the SDSM&T WRF, may provide better insight into the small scale weather phenomena that control fire behavior. Experiments were performed on the physics schemes (specifically boundary layer schemes) of the WRF model to determine what low level atmospheric parameters were best represented under certain synoptic flows and patterns. Additionally, a comparison of a three kilometer and one kilometer grid spacing were used to determine if there were any substantial differences in forecasted low level wind flow in the Black Hills region. Data assimilation of the Rapid City radiosonde as well as ASOS, AWOS, and RAWS stations around the region were included in the model to maximize its accuracy. The model output is then compared with the actual forecast validation for the time period.