Identifying the potential for Arctic transport of smoke

The influence of black carbon on the Arctic has been found to be a major source of warming, and mitigation of the transport of black carbon influence on the Arctic was a focus of the Copenhagen Accord. Spring prescribed burning in the southeastern U.S. and agricultural and wildland fires in Russia have been identified as potential significant sources to Arctic black carbon. Using a 30-year climatology of trajectory model results we identify the potential for smoke from a given source location to reach the Arctic, stratified by source region, calendar year timing, and plume injection height. The results help quantify the timing and synoptic meteorological patterns that lead to the potential for emissions, including black carbon, to be transported to the Arctic. By specifically identifying the meteorological patterns that cause transport to be enhanced, a screening tool is being developed to help prescribed burners and other emitters better mitigate their long-range Arctic transport potential.