Seasonal climate prediction for the UK health sector: results from the UK NERC COAPEC project

As one month and one-season ahead climate predictions are currently being produced by a number of climate prediction centres around the world, the potential exists to predict seasonal variations of climate sensitive health outcomes. For example, intra-seasonal to seasonal forecasts of a range of climate variables typically used in climate and health diagnostic studies are available for the UK from the UK Met Office - Hadley Centre coupled GloSea model. Assuming that clear and plausible relationships exist between climate and health at the seasonal level, then the potential exists for the climate-based prediction of the general level (above/below the climatological norm) of a variety of climate sensitive health outcomes several months in advance. Accordingly this paper will (1) explore the potential predictability of ischaemic heart disease at the seasonal level based on a historical analysis of seasonal climate and mortality relationships, (2) examine the predictability of a range of potential seasonal climate predictors of health derived from the UK Hadley Centre GloSea Coupled seasonal climate prediction model and (3) discuss the practicality of issuing seasonal health forecasts.