The goals of this research are to develop the capability to simulate the concentration and dispersion of post-eruptive plumes of volcanic aerosol as they originate from the Pu'u O'o vent of Kilauea Volcano. The purpose is to increase public awareness in order that the impact of these aerosols on respiratory health and general aviation may be alleviated.

In order to produce an accurate regional forecast of the concentration and dispersion of volcanic aerosol, the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HY-SPLIT) model was used. The wind fields and thermodynamic data from the non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Spectral Model (MSM) were employed as input for the HY-SPLIT model. A combination of satellite remote sensing, aircraft and ground-based observations were used to validate model concentration and dispersion results.

The HY-SPLIT model shows skill in reproducing the plume shape, orientation and concentration gradient as deduced from Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) satellite aerosol optical depth imager. Comparison of the model simulations and MICROTOPS II sun photometer data indicate that the model was able to forecast maximum and minimum plume concentrations. Model output concentrations were anticipated to be less than observed values, as background concentrations were not included. However, results yielded even lower expected concentrations on the leeward coast due to lack of sea-breeze circulation in the wind field model. Comparison of the model simulations to satellite imagery revealed skillful correlation between plume size, shape, orientation and concentration values. These results are promising for future operational applications of the HY-SPLIT model in vog forecasting.