Recorded presentation1.8
Detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change
John F. B. Mitchell, MetOffice, Exeter, United Kingdom
Detection of climate change and attribution of its causes requires both a knowledge of unforced natural climate variability and patterns of change associated with different forcing factors, as well as observations of the change itself. Advances in climate modelling over the last few decades make it possible to make estimates of natural variability and forced patterns of climate change. Based on these estimates, it seems that the global scale warming over the last half century is unlikely to be entirely natural in origin. In this talk, I will outline developments since the last IPCC report in the attribution of recent climate change. Recent detection and attribution studies have considered changes in parameters other than temperature, and evaluated regional changes and possible changes in the frequency of extreme events. Recorded presentation
Session 1, Suki Manabe Symposium
Monday, 10 January 2005, 9:00 AM-5:15 PM
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