The Ed Lorenz Symposium


Model error, attractors, and predictability

Kevin Judd, University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australi, Australia; and C. A. Reynolds and T. E. Rosmond

Ed Lorenz introduced idea the chaotic attractor. Whether the atmosphere has an attractor or not is probably not a useful question to answer. Forecast models, however, do have attractors, or attracting manifolds. In this paper we demonstrate using the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) that the model attractor plays an important role in predictability. In particular, we will reveal using shadowing techniques how "initial condition" error and model error are related to the attractor and how these effect forecasts.

Poster Session 1, Lorenz Symposium Posters
Thursday, 13 January 2005, 9:45 AM-9:45 AM

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