10.8
Precipitation extreme values in an AGCM ensemble
Tosiyuki Nakaegawa, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and K. I. Matsumaru
Precipitation extreme values in an AGCM ensemble were investigated to clarify the model's reproducibility and the statistical characteristics of the extremes in the AGCM. The AGCM used in this study was the T42 version of the MRI/JMA 98 with 30 vertical layers. The 6-member 130-yr integrations with the period, 1872-1998, were performed with the prescribed SST of HadISST. The observed data used were CRU precipitation with the period of 1901-1998. The extreme values are computed for each member, and for a set of the 6-member ensemble. The maximum extreme values of the 100-yr return period were almost equal one another between the members with no statistically significant differences except for in the Sahara desert. The mean of the maximum extreme values were also almost equal to the maximum extreme values obtained from the 6-member ensemble. Therefore, the maximum extreme values of precipitation were robustly estimated when a single 100-yr integration is available. The the maximum values estimated from the observation were not well reproduced, especially in the inland areas of the continents.
Session 10, Climate Modeling Studies 2 (parallel with Session 11)
Wednesday, 12 January 2005, 1:30 PM-5:30 PM
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