16th Conference on Climate Variability and Change


Attribution studies for understanding late 20th climate trends in the Sahel: Regional climate model simulations using NCEP Reanalysis (1982-2002)

Gregory S. Jenkins, Howard University, Washington, DC; and B. Sylla and A. T. Gaye

A trend toward drier conditions in Sahel (10-18N, 17.5W-20E) began during the late 1960s with the decade of the 1980s representing one of the driest on record in West Africa. Abnormally dry conditions continue to plague the Sahel as recently as 2002. There have also been several anomalously wet periods since this time (1998, 1999). Various factors have been associated with the overall trend toward drier conditions including global/regional sea surface temperature anomalies, land-use change and degradation, anomalous tropical circulation and possibly anthropogenic climate change. This study focuses on the period of 1982-2002 where NCEP reanalysis are used to drive a regional climate model (RegCM3) at the lateral boundary conditions. Simulations are compared with observations and driving NCEP reanalysis during the period. Issues of increasing capacity building in West Africa for regional climate modeling studies are also briefly addressed.

Poster Session 1, Poster Session: Climate Assessments, Drought, and Observed Climate Change
Monday, 10 January 2005, 2:30 PM-4:00 PM

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