Extended Abstract (1.3M)4.15
An Evaluation of Ozone Forecast Methods for the Eastern United States: Is There Room for Improvement?
Scott A. Jackson, U.S. EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC; and A. C. Chan, C. E. Lengyel, R. A. Wayland, J. E. White, and T. S. Dye
Operational air quality forecasts of ground-level ozone and particle pollution to protect public health have become routine in the United States. Various tools such as regression, photochemical models, and phenomenological rules have been developed to provide guidance for enhancing the accuracy of air quality forecasts. However, the accuracy of these forecast tools has yet to be uniformly and consistently evaluated. This paper provides an in-depth and objective assessment of human forecasts, regression equations, and the NOAA-EPA and Canadian CHRONOS forecast models for six selected East Coast cities. It also discusses the challenges faced by air quality forecasters in making more accurate and specific forecasts as well as the future direction and advancement of air quality forecasts nationwide.
Session 4, Air Quality Forecasting - Aerosols and Ozone
Thursday, 13 January 2005, 8:30 AM-5:00 PM
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