85th AMS Annual Meeting

Wednesday, 12 January 2005
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) as a Foundation for a Systematic Methodology in GFE
Carven A. Scott, NOAA/NWSFO, Anchorage, AK; and V. J. Proton, J. Nelson, S. Baines, and C. Eldred
Poster PDF (750.3 kB)
There are innumerable GFE methodologies currently in vogue across the NWS: some systematic, and some not. The GFE software design allows the forecaster an unlimited number of degrees of freedom to manipulate the sensible weather element grids. However, the lack of a consistent set of methodologies has become an impediment to the maturation of GFE (Scott and Proton, 2004).

In recognition of this necessity the WFO Anchorage instituted a standard methodology based on the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF). The premise is simple: If the forecaster can focus on, and accurately evaluate the location and amount of precipitation that will occur, the forecaster will likely have a good handle on the other forecast fields.

One of the benefits of the QPF methodology is that it allows for a direct relationship among the HPC QPF forecaster, the RFC-HAS forecaster, and the forecast office. In addition the standard approach has permitted the Anchorage office to develop a number of Smart Tools and Procedures that systematically derive a number of other related fields that would otherwise be manipulated independently by hand. This environment allows for better internal and external coordination of sensible weather element grids.

Though the QPF methodology is still a work in progress, results have been very encouraging to this point.

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