Without doubt, the world airline industry plays a significant part in the global economy. World airline revenues for 2003 were $312.9 billion. However, despite global passenger traffic forecast to increase at or above 7% per year, doubling passenger movements by 2015, the airline business still struggles to make an operating profit. For North American airlines reducing daily operational costs is now of paramount importance. Reducing operational sensitivities (delays, weather re-routes, diversions, optimum flight altitudes, etc) to terrestrial weather impacts is now well established and integrated into the flight planning processes of all involved in the industry.

The intense Solar activity of October/November 2003 provided clear evidence of Space Weather storm impacts on airline operations; polar routes were re-directed, delayed or cancelled; lower flight altitudes were suggested; and Air Traffic Control imposed reduced flow rates along airways. However, these impacts (communications, navigation and radiation hazard to avionics and humans) were not confined to the poles, as Space Weather affected lower latitude operations as well. Though difficult to assess, the commercial impacts from these storms is thought to have been millions of dollars in additional fuel costs and loss of cargo, at a time when oil prices have driven the cost of jet fuel to an all time high.

The number of “over-the-pole” flights has increased year on year since they began around 1999. While it is true that introduction of such operations coincided with Solar Maximum, the recent activity during the “quieter” period of solar activity highlights the need for increased assessment of Space Weather impacts. To meet the envisaged growth in air travel will require more aircraft to fly higher and longer using a global satellite based navigation system. In addition, new micro-chip technologies will be deployed to improve aircraft efficiency and reduce operating costs still further. Such evolutions are likely to be more susceptible to Space Weather impacts, throughout the solar cycle. There appears, therefore, a strong case to carry out further risk assessments of the Space Weather impacts upon the future global airline operation, and a cost/benefit analysis for the possible provision and integration of information and services.

While the assimilation and provision of Space Weather data requires the expertise of a new kind of “Weather” person, it does appear that delivery of operational Space Weather products and services could be achieved in a similar manner to, and with some commonality to terrestrial weather applications. Integration into the operational decision process could be relatively straightforward as the professional aviator and air traffic controller are already familiar with terrestrial weather terminology and formats. However, several key issues will need to be addressed, not least of which is educating the industry about the Space Weather environment.

This presentation will provide a brief overview of the work being carried out by SolarMetrics to assess Space Weather impacts, the development/provision of suitable products to reduce operational and commercial impacts, and present ideas for the integration of Space Weather information into global aviation operations.