85th AMS Annual Meeting

Wednesday, 12 January 2005
The impact of soil moisture initialization on seasonal precipitation in the West African Sahel using the Regional Spectral Model
Andrea M. Sealy, Howard University, Washington, DC; and E. Joseph, C. H. Lu, and H. M. H. Juang
This study investigates the extent to which prior knowledge of soil moisture states can influence seasonal precipitation predictability in the West African Sahel. This region has been characterized as a semi-arid region which is the transition zone that model studies have suggested that the impact of land state initialization on precipitation predictability may be most significant. Results will be presented from (1)a preliminary sensitivity analysis that consists of a one-month integration to assess the atmospheric response to extreme dry and wet soil conditions, (2)an EOF analysis of 22 years of May/June monthly Reanalysis-2 soil moisture data to identify the leading modes of soil moisture variability in the region and (3)a sensitivity analysis that consists of a seasonal integration (May-October) initialized with soil moisture patterns that are characteristic of the first two leading modes of soil moisture variability.

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