85th AMS Annual Meeting

Tuesday, 11 January 2005: 4:15 PM
Prediction of Synoptic Current Reversals on the Louisiana-Texas Continental Shelf
Peter C. Chu, NPS, Monterey, CA; and L. M. Ivanov and O. Melnichenko
Analysis of high-resolution observational velocity data (LATEX current meters and SCULP-I drifters) using the recently developed optimal spectral decomposition (OSD) method demonstrates the existence of synoptic current reversals on entire LTCS in fall-winter. The local alongshore, synoptic winds cause total and partial synoptic current reversals. Three time scales (5, 10 and 20 days) are evident for these events. These reversals are predictable due to non-episodic. A simple dynamical model is established to nowcast the LTCS currents from the combination of the mean and first EOF mode. A statistical model is proposed to forecast the synoptic variability of LTCS currents including total and partial current reversal from the local winds.

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