Monday, 10 January 2005: 1:30 PM
Thunderstorm nowcasting and climatology using cylindrical coordinate Hovmöller diagrams: An NLDN application
Predicting the behavior of thunderstorms at different time and spatial scales have been demonstrated through use of Hovmöller diagrams that signify the time-history of storm development through graphical representations of their latitudinal or longitudinal locations as deduced from either radar or lightning data. This paper introduces a novel, simple variation of this approach that focuses on single points of interest rather than on latitudinal or longitudinal swaths. Basically, the time-history of storms are illustrated with polar Hovmöller diagrams that show storm activity’s dependence on radial distances and directions from specified points of interest. Such plots are shown to be useful for predicting arrival times of storms, gaging intensity evolution, and determining directions of arrival, detection probabilities, false alarm rates and other prediction statistics. Combining data over extended time frames such as weeks, months and seasons allows for elucidation of the local climatology of thunderstorms.