Wednesday, 12 January 2005: 2:15 PM
The Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model
The State of Florida Department of Insurance is sponsoring the development of an open catastrophic loss model to assess the risk to insured residential property due to damaging hurricane winds. The model comprises of three main components: Meteorological (storm track and wind field models), Engineering (damage assessment),and Actuarial (value loss). The model allows for user input at all stages in order to examine various risk scenarios. This talk will primarily discuss the meteorological component, with particular emphasis on the storm track model. The storm track model stochastically generates thousands of track scenarios by sampling from probability density functions (PDFs) derived from the historical record. PDFs are derived for storm genesis, motion and intensity changes. Once the storm tracks are generated, the associated wind fields are then calculated. These storm scenarios are then provided to the remaining components of the model.