Surface layer ozone concentrations from AIRNOW measurements and from CMAQ forecasts were incorporated into NCEPís Forecast Verification System (FVS). CMAQ predicted concentrations are interpolated to the observation points. Average statistics (e.g. bias, root mean square error, correlation etc) are computed for North East Coast, South East Coast, Mid-West, Gulf of Mexico and several other areas. Statistics for critical thresholds for ozone concentration are also computed. Differences in the model performance between AQF versions for Summer 2003 and Summer 2004 are examined. Skill of ozone predictions in different regions, dependence on synoptic regime and the importance of vertical structure of meteorological variables (temperature profile, PBL height) will be presented.
Supplementary URL: http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/aq/fvs/cmaqverif.html