Tuesday, 11 January 2005: 2:00 PM
Climate Connections of Land-Falling Tropical Cyclones: A Case Study for North Carolina
This study documents the temporal and frequency variations of occurrence of land-falling tropical cyclones (TCs) in North Carolina (NC). The period studied is 1887-1999. While there is significant variability over the 113 year period, a visual inspection of the record suggests a strongly modulated pattern of activity. The principal modes of variability are revealed and are shown to be related to: the Biennial Oscillation; the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the cycle of precipitation in the African Western Sahel; the Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Dipole; and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The residual trend has been ~1.0 event per year (e/y) with a low of ~0.8 e/y in the mid 20th century. Implications for the future in a time of rising sea-level are suggested.