12th Conference on Aviation Range and Aerospace Meteorology


The new CIP icing severity product

Ben C. Bernstein, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and F. McDonough, C. A. Wolff, M. K. Politovich, G. Cunning, S. Mueller, and S. Zednik

NCAR's Current Icing Potential (CIP) algorithm is going through a series of significant changes. Chief among these is an upgrade to the CIP Severity algorithm, which is currently under development. The initial version of the CIP Severity algorithm used icing and SLD potential to determine a first-guess icing severity (light or moderate) which was adjusted based on a combination of the closest pilot reports and model forecasts of liquid water content and vertical velocity. Forecaster experience has shown that additional information on severity can be gleaned from other fields and that some of the initial fields may be applied more effectively. Time- and (3D) space-weighted PIREPs, satellite observations of visible albedo, radar reflectivity, surface observations of precipitation type, and model estimates of moisture (including explicit forecasts of supercooled liquid water content), stability and temperature advection are all candidates for use. This paper will describe the concepts behind the updated CIP Severity field, including input fields, weighting schemes, and proposed plotting schemes.

extended abstract  Extended Abstract (2.1M)

Poster Session 9, Aircraft Icing Posters
Wednesday, 1 February 2006, 2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Exhibit Hall A2

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