12th Conference on Aviation Range and Aerospace Meteorology
18th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences


Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) Issuance Analysis

Stacey Seseske, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. E. Hart

The Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) is a key component in the strategic planning of air traffic over the National Air System (NAS). The forecasts are used primarily by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) and airline dispatchers to determine whether alternate flight routes are necessary for moving air traffic around convective weather. The CCFP is issued with lead times of two, four and six hours, with the strategic emphasis placed on the four and six hour forecasts.

Two of the most significant CCFP attributes are the coverage of convective weather within a forecast polygon and the forecaster confidence in meeting the minimum forecast requirements. In this analysis, the frequency of issuance of the coverage and confidence attributes is examined. This information provides a summary of CCFP forecast characteristics that can be applied to strategic risk assessment activities.

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Joint Session 1, Calibration and Verification of Probabilistic Forecast Products (Joint between 12th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology and the 18th Conference on Probability and Statistics)
Wednesday, 1 February 2006, 4:00 PM-5:30 PM, A304

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