18th Conference on Climate Variability and Change


Teleconnections and climate in the Peruvian Andes

Elsa Nickl, Univ. of Delaware, Newark, DE; and C. Willmott

The Peruvian Andes are one of the highest regions inhabited by people, most of who rely on climate-dependent agriculture and livestock for their livelihood. Extreme climate events, associated with interannual variability, can produce severe impacts on the economy of this region. It follows that accurate climate forecasts would be very useful in helping to reduce the risk.

Several researchers have found possible relationships between El Niņo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and precipitation in the Andean region. In view of these preliminary findings, our work is directed toward analyzing, in greater detail, the spatial and temporal behavior of those atmospheric teleconnection patterns that may be associated with climate in the Central and Southern Peruvian Andes. Spatial correlations between global atmospheric and oceanic anomaly fields, and monthly air temperature and precipitation within the Central and Southern Peruvian Andes are estimated for the period 1950-99. In order to improve statistical forecasts, the spatial domains of those anomalies associated with climate in the Peruvian Andes are reassessed, primarily by evaluating the thermal content of the anomalies. A multivariate analysis -using teleconnection patterns and thermal content of anomalies- was developed and is applied to forecasting climate in the Central and Southern Peruvian Andes.


Session 6, Climate Prediction on Seasonal to Interannual Timescales
Wednesday, 1 February 2006, 10:30 AM-12:00 PM, A314

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