Third Symposium on Space Weather


The first Space Wx Forecast Models from the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling

Michael Gehmeyr, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and C. N. Arge, L. Mayer, D. Odstrcil, M. J. Owens, H. S. Spence, D. Vassiliadis, and R. S. Weigel

One main objective of the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) is to develop forecast models (FM) for the Sun-Earth chain and mature them close to the operational stage. All models are based on science models from research conducted at the center. The Sun-Earth chain contains both empirical and physical models. Among the former are a 1 to 7-day prediction of the daily Ap and solar wind speed at L1, and a 1-day prediction of the relativistic electron flux in the 2-9 MeV energy channel for L-shells between 1.1 and 10. Among the latter is the Ambient Solar Wind FM. It is driven by daily NSO synoptic maps; we employ the Wang-Sheeley-Arge algorithm to transform these into inner boundary conditions for a MHD code; we apply the ENLIL code to propagate the structures of the ambient solar wind out to Earth and beyond. A important step in the transition from science to forecast models is the validation. We discuss methods, define suitable metrics, and report on the validation findings for the various models. In conclusion we showcase the whole transition process with the Ap FM. .

Session 3, New space weather data sources, products, and developments with forecast models
Tuesday, 31 January 2006, 8:30 AM-12:30 PM, A406

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