14th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere


Statistical prediction of midlatitude Pacific sea surface temperatures

Cécile Penland, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and M. Alexander and L. Matrosova

Linear Inverse Modeling (LIM) is a tool that has been used for more than a decade to make skillful forecasts of tropical IndoPacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). In this presentation, we show that LIM can also be used to provide skillful forecasts of Pacific SSTs in the northern midlatitudes. In particular, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation can be predicted up to a year in advance. We examine how much of this predictability can be extracted using midlatitude SSTs alone and how much of it requires explicit treatment of the tropics. .

Session 1, Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Basin–Scale And Decadal Variability
Monday, 30 January 2006, 9:00 AM-11:45 AM, A309

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