18th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Session 3


Bayesian Probability Forecasting

 Cochairs: Tilmann Gneiting, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; William M. Briggs, Weill Cornell Medical School, New York, NY
4:00 PM3.1Bayesian Processor of Output: A New Technique for Probabilistic Weather Forecasting  
Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA
4:15 PM3.2Bayesian Processor of Output for Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting  
Coire J. Maranzano, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and R. Krzysztofowicz
4:30 PM3.3Forecasting U.S. hurricanes 6 months in advance  
James B. Elsner, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. H. Jagger and R. J. Murnane
3.4Forecast calibration and combination: Bayesian assimilation of seasonal climate predictions  
Caio A. S. Coelho, University of Reading, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom; and D. B. Stephenson, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, and M. A. Balmaseda
4:45 PM3.5Communicating probability with real-time calibrated forecasts  extended abstract wrf recording
Patrick G. Tewson, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA

Monday, 30 January 2006: 4:00 PM-5:00 PM, A304

* - Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

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