Evaluating winter season precipitation type in the Baltimore/Washington NWSFO region

In this study, both forecasted and observed precipitation types (P-types) are compared. The periods of concern are two consecutive winter seasons, 2003/2004 and 2004/2005, for the Baltimore/Washington National Weather Service Forecast Office (NWSFO) region. There is considerable value, both economically and for human welfare, on accurately forecasting P-type (rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow) for a large metropolitan area during the winter season. Therefore the basis of this study is to quantify uncertainties associated with P-types during winter weather events. This study uses archived GFS model forecasts and observation (radiosondes and surface measurements) at each winter weather event. The results of this study will be presented at the conference