FAA AWRP Convective Weather Product Development Team

Thunderstorms account for a significant fraction of air traffic delays in the US, particularly in the summer months, resulting in enormous annual economic losses. In response, the FAA Convective Weather Product Development Team conducts research and develops algorithms and products to help mitigate these problems.

This paper will provide an overview of the Convective Weather PDT activities, including past accomplishments, existing real-time tactical and strategic forecasts (and their documented benefits), near-term product capabilities, and current/future research.

Existing real-time forecast products include:

Deterministic “Radar Map” Weather Forecasts Terminal Convective Weather Forecast for the FAA Integrated Terminal Weather System Regional Convective Weather Forecast for the FAA Corridor Integrated Weather System - 0-2 hr Precip Forecast - 0-2 hr Echo Tops Forecast

Probabilistic Convective Weather Forecast National Convective Weather Forecast for the NOAA Aviation Digital Data Service - 0-2 hr Convective Precip Area Coverage Forecast

Research topics include:

Convective initiation Explicit numerical forecasts of convection Optimal combination of observation-based and numerical forecasts Coupling forecasts to automated air traffic management decision support tools Role of the human forecaster