A simulation of the effect of an expanded NOAA Profiler Network on short-range forecasts

A Cost and Operational Effectiveness Analysis (COEA) of the NOAA Profiler Network was submitted to the U.S. Congress in 2004. As a follow-on to the COEA report, this paper examines the potential improvement in short-term forecast accuracy if this central U.S. network were expanded nationwide. The additional profiler sites included in the simulation are shown in the map below as “New CAP” (Cooperative Agency Profiler) and “New NOAA Profiler” sites. The study used a long, uninterrupted forecast by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts in February 1993 that provided boundary conditions for an MM5 “nature run” covering the U.S. Observation sources assimilated by the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) were extracted from the MM5 nature run using recent geographic distributions and frequencies, and typical random errors were added. These observations were assimilated hourly into a 40-km version of the RUC, with information from the additional profilers either included or withheld. At the meeting, we will present the impact of data from the additional wind profilers on short-range forecast accuracy out to 24 h.