Hub Forecast Prototype Test

A prototype for a new terminal forecast has been designed and tested for high-volume aviation terminals (Hubs). The Hub Forecast is a 1-dimensional (time) hourly forecast out to eight hours in advance for six weather parameters at an airport. For the first time, weather forecasts include a tactical decision aid that relates the weather forecast to terminal capacity—the airport acceptance rate for a chosen runway configuration and conditions (wet/dry), based on empirical data. The target users of Hub Forecasts are Traffic Management Units in TRACONS and Centers (ARTCCs), as well as the weather services provider that supports air traffic management, currently located at Center Weather Service Centers (CWSUs). A Prototype Test was conducted by FAA System Operations for 3 months during 2005. Compared to the traditional TAF, test results show that improvements in the forecast of ceiling and wind speed of up to 50% are possible. The limitations of the Prototype Test and the potential improvements of a Hub Forecast will be presented.