A long-range forecast of Arctic summer sea-ice minimum extent

Interannual variations in Arctic snow-covered sea-ice play a key role in governing surface albedo, and thereby influence the global climate. While several studies have examined fluctuations in sea ice extent, area, and type, relatively few have investigated interannual fluctuations in the Arctic surface albedos. Using data primarily from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), this paper discusses the development of a climate data record of Arctic surface albedo and then examines spatial and temporal variations in surface albedo across the Arctic. Results indicate a small decrease in Pan-Arctic albedo over the 1979 – 2004 study period, although there are significant regional variations, with some regions exhibiting much larger decreases in surface albedo, and some regions showing an increase.