Prototyping Tactical Decision Aids for the Aviation Forecast Preparation System

The Aviation Forecast Preparation System (AvnFPS) is the current computer application used by forecasters in NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) to prepare and monitor aviation forecasts. The framework of the AvnFPS has been enhanced to support two Tactical Decision Aids (TDA). These TDAs can provide decision makers for the National Airspace System (NAS) the information they need to efficiently plan and direct traffic flow. The first TDA provides categorical forecasts of aviation impact variables, such as ceiling and visibility that are tailored to the needs of aircraft landing at and taking off from an airport. Input for this TDA comes from the relevant Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF). The second TDA is focused on approach and departure operations at an airport. The approach/departure TDA provides the status of impact variables, such as icing, turbulence, and thunderstorms at fixed, navigational waypoints known as "cornerposts." Input for the approach/departure TDA is extracted from gridded forecasts of the impact variables. Human forecasters can add value to these gridded forecasts via a technique known as the Interactive Calibration of grids in four Dimensions (IC4D). The IC4D will provide a human interface to consistently and accurately modify model output in a timely fashion by adjusting thresholds used to interpret underlying probabilities and indices.