Current Icing Potential (CIP) Algorithm with TAMDAR Data – A Verification Analysis

This research was started to test if the use of TAMDAR (Tropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting) data in the CIP algorithm would improve the accuracy of the CIP output using standard verification methods. CIP combines model output (20-km RUC interpolated to 5 km) with weather observations (METARs, Goes imagery and NEXRAD mosaic) to determine an initial potential field. CIP then uses pilot reports (PIREPs) to boost this potential where aircraft are encountering icing. In this study TAMDAR icing reports, both positive and negative, are being added to the voice PIREP database. The CIP icing potential fields are then re-run with these updated PIREP data sets. The accuracy of the CIP output, with and without the additional TAMDAR data, will be evaluated using our standard verification methods for the winter to spring period of 2005. In addition, this paper will show case studies of significant icing or non-icing events to illustrate the potential for improvement.