Estimating the economic impact of an 1859-calibre superstorm on satellite resources

We have developed simple models to assess the economic impacts to the current satellite resource caused by the worst-case scenario of a hypothetical, 1859-calibre superstorm occurring in ca 2012 at the peak of the next sunspot cycle. Our analysis of economic impacts is a first attempt at estimation whose approach will suggest ways in which better estimates may eventually be obtained. The worst-case scenario does not appear to include the complete failure of all 937 operating satellites in the current population, which have a replacement value of ~$170-230 billion, and support a ~$90 billion/year industry. Instead, our estimates suggest a potential economic loss of <$0 billion for lost profit and satellite replacement for GEO satellites. We estimate that as many as 80 satellites in GEO, MEO and LEO may be disabled. Additional impacts may include the failure of many of the GPS, GLONASS and Galileo satellites in MEO. Approximately 98 LEO satellites that normally would not have re-entered for many decades, may prematurely de-orbit by ca 2021 as a result of the temporarily increased atmospheric drag caused by a superstorm occurring in ca 2012. The $100 billion International Space Station may lose significant altitude, placing it in critical need for re-boosting by an amount potentially outside the range of typical Space Shuttle operations, which are in any case scheduled to end in 2010.