Examining Climate Influences and Economic Impacts of Harmful Algal Blooms in Massachusetts: 1993 and 2005

Although the potential causes of harmful algal blooms (HABs), or red tides, have been studied extensively, the relationships between the environmental drivers and economic impacts have not been fully explored. This paper examined the environmental-economic link by investigating similarities in the environmental conditions leading to the 1993 and 2005 HABs (caused by the dinoflagellate Alexandirum) along the Massachusetts coast, and the resulting effects on shellfish, public health, recreation, tourism, and the commercial shellfish industry in Massachusetts. Environmental influences including sea surface temperature (SST), salinity, precipitation, streamflow, and shellfish toxicity levels were examined for the years 1990 to 2005. Economic impacts on commercial fishery landings (Massachusetts mussel commercial fishery landings and Gloucester commercial fishery landings) were assessed for the years1990 to 2003. The Plume Advection hypothesis was studied and results showed that runoff from the five major rivers that contribute to the Western Maine Coastal Current, the current that carried these cells, peaked in April 1993 and 2005 relative to the mean which varied from river to river. The most intense wind stress coming from the North occurred in April 1993 and May 2005 with speeds of 15-20 m/s. A large decrease in salinity off the Massachusetts coast occurred in May 1993 and measured outside the 68% of 1993 salinity data recorded, and from the information available, in April and May 2005 waters were also less saline. Peaks in shellfish toxicity occurred in early June 1993 at approximately 400 µg toxicity/g shellfish meat and in 2005 at 700 µg toxicity/g shellfish meat. This indicated a lag time between peaks in runoff and toxicity of approximately one month and similarly with decreases in salinity. Runoff also corresponded to a large decrease in salinity during May 1993. Coincidentally, there was also a significant decrease in commercial fishery landings between 1992 and 1993, resulting in a decrease of millions of dollars of revenue for shellfish fishermen and the state of Massachusetts. The 2005 red tide affected 1700 shellfish fisherman and which resulted in a loss of millions for the 2005 Massachusetts shellfish season. Effects to tourism and public health for 1993 and 2005 were challenging to assess, however, due to scarcity of accurate information. Changing fishery policies affected commercial fishery landings during the same time and were also considered. These results argue for more accurate forecasts that will help predict future HABs, as well as improved methods to provide more reliable information on the economic impacts of HABs to minimize the negative impacts of future HABs.