Sensitivity of WRF forecasts for south Florida to initial and boundary Conditions

In South Florida, mesoscale weather features have a significant impact on day to day weather forecasts as they represent the primary forcing. Some of these features are: tropical waves, seas breezes, land breezes, thermal troughs, and outflow boundaries. The warm waters of the Gulf Stream also play an important role on the thermodynamic properties of the local air mass. Many of these features are not represented properly in the guidance from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).

The results of a sensitivity study of WRF forecasts for south Florida to initial and boundary conditions are presented. For initial conditions, either NAM model analyses or analyses produced by the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) at the Weather Service Forecast Office in Miami are used. For boundary conditions, either the Sea Surface Temperature fields from NCEP or locally produced high resolution SST fields are used.