1.3
Forecasting and visualization of atmospheric flows among North American ecological regions
Stuart H. Gage, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI; and M. Colunga and S. A. Isard
An operational framework for ecological scaling of long distance biota movement is achieved by linking spatially-static ecoregion classification systems with temporally-dynamic measures of vegetation phenology. The ecoregions provide ecological boundaries for the phenological dynamics of plants. Operationally, this approach integrates the bi-weekly vegetation greening indices (NDVI) derived from AVHRR or TM satellite data (representing temporal scaling) with the less dynamic land cover - land use classification (IGBP) and the relatively static ecoregion boundaries (representing the spatial scaling). We argue that the correlation of the life histories of species, especially the timing of take-off, to ecosystem phenology through meteorological-based variables and indices (e.g., degree days and moisture indices), allows for dynamic characterization of source ecosystems and can be used to parameterize atmospheric models to forecast the flow of biota in the air. The scale of these processes, the diversity of the types of biota involved in long-distance movement, and the complexity of the processes require systems thinking.
Session 1, Scientfic Challenges in Aerobiology for the 21st Century
Tuesday, 15 August 2000, 9:30 AM-12:30 PM
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