By C.V.singh* Centre for Energy Studies Indian Institute of Technology New Delhi - 110 016, INDIA. *E-mail : cvsingh@cas.iitd.ernet.in
Abstract
The interannual fluctuations in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and their relationship to the Indian monsoon rainfall (June-September) have been studies for the period 1940-2000 covering 340 stations all over India (in figure 1. each stations contains the seasonal average rainfall of five neighbors stations). The monsoon rainfall is significant correlated with the southern oscillation index (June-September) 0.65. The large positive southern oscillation index are positively correlated with the flood years, while the negative southern oscillation index are correlated with the drought years. In this studies, we have taken the flood/drought years separately as well as well as El-Nino years and find their relationship with SOI. It has been has been observed that mostly drought occurs, when Southern Oscillation Index value is negative. It has also been noticed that there is a good correlation ship with El-Nino and drought years (57%). The Spectrum analysis is also carried out on monsoon rainfall and Southern Oscillation Index separately (SOI) and it is concluded that they are highly correlated in the period range 2-2.5 years to 4-6 years and 5.5-6.0 years respectively. It has also been observed that the climatic anomalies such as drought in India and El-Nino off the coast of Peru are linked with the southern Oscillation (walker circulation)
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