Predicting West Nile Virus mosquito habitat using ecological theory

West Nile Virus (WNV) surveillance data has broad spatial coverage, limited temporal coverage and is spatially biased to known foci of mosquito activity. Furthermore, the spatial extents of mosquitoes that transmit WNV (Cx. tarsalis and Cx. quinquefasciatus) are not well documented in Arizona. We explore how a spatial model, the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production (GARP) provides insight into the climatic and environmental characteristics of the habitats of mosquitoes that transmit WNV. GARP is a data adaptive and machine driven algorithm that combines ecological niche theory and empirical field work to inductively define a theoretical area where a species can sustain a population. Coverages of climatic averages and extremes, environmental variables, and measures of human alterations to the environment which approximate or correspond to a mosquito's life cycle are input into the model. Different spatial patterns of seasonal and annual climatic variables and environmental variables form the best predictive models for each species. We explore novel methods of spatially analyzing an ecological niche to further understand WNV transmission at different spatial and temporal extents.