5th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology and the 2nd International Wildland Fire Ecology and Fire Management Congress

Monday, 17 November 2003
Probabilistic Forecasts of Fire Occurrence
Haiganoush K. Preisler, USDA Forest Service, Riverside, CA; and J. W. Benoit, F. M. Fujioka, D. R. Brillinger, and R. E. Burgan
Fire occurrence depends on the physical and biological factors of the fire environment, but fires donít necessarily occur when the environment is primed. We describe a probability model that relates fire occurrence to the spatial/temporal history of fire in a region, in addition to characteristics of the fire environment that might serve as explanatory variables. The model expresses 1) the probability of having a fire at a particular place and day; 2) having a large fire (> 100 acres), given an ignition; and 3) the unconditional probability of having a large fire. The modeling methodology is described for a forested area in Oregon. The probability model is being developed as a tool for regional fire risk assessments.

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