National Air Quality Forecast Capability:Moving Research into Operations

In partnership with the US EPA, NOAA has deployed the initial stage of a national air quality forecast capability into the National Weather Service (NWS) operational suite. The capability is an end-to-end prediction system, linking NWS/National Center for Environmental Prediction operational weather forecast models with emissions information and air quality forecast modules developed by NOAA researchers at EPA for regulatory assessment purposes to provide twice daily predictions of hour-by-hour ground-level ozone concentrations on a 12km grid, disseminated over operational NWS and EPA dataservers in digital and graphical formats. Dataservers are fully backed up, with archiving and near-real-time verification in place to monitor forecast accuracy. Required accuracy of 90% and reliability of 95% on-time delivery were demonstrated in the pre-deployment testing period, and are being maintained as the initial forecast domain (Northeastern US) expands Nationwide. Testing of expanded capabilities is underway, with targeted deployment of nationwide ozone forecasts within 5 years, followed by the addition of particulate matter forecasts and an extended forecast period- out to day 2 and beyond. Expansion will proceed as rapidly as resources and achievement of required test accuracy permit.

The fast-track development, testing and implementation of the initial operational capability result from close cooperation among NOAA, EPA, and a focus group of state and local air quality forecasters. NOAA/EPA researchers and NWS developers adapted and integrated the Community Multiscale Air Quality model (CMAQ) for NWS' operational environment and adapted operational weather forecast models (first Eta and then WRF) to provide meteorological parameters needed to drive the air quality emissions preprocessing and reactive transport codes. EPA develops, maintains and updates emissions inventory information, provides current monitoring data for verification, and provides forecast guidance in terms of their health-based air quality index. State and local air quality forecasters are working with the NOAA/EPA in developmental testing of the forecast guidance to examine local area performance and utility. State and local air quality forecasters are using the forecast guidance as a principal tool in issuing local health-based air quality alerts. The capability also benefits from the efforts of the broader research communities of NOAA and all sectors involved in improving understanding of pollutant emission, transformation, transportation and deposition in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. Frequent peer-reviews are held to evaluate planned improvements to the system to ensure efforts are focused on improving areas that will have maximum impact on the forecast guidance that is used to provide information needed to protect people from the harmful effects of poor air quality.