GFDL Research into climate-air quality interactions

GFDL recently completed an extensive suite of historical, present and future climate simulations radiatively forced by specified trace gas and aerosol fields for a range of IPCC emission scenarios. We are now studying a number of issues that address potential couplings among the physical climate and both gas phase and aerosol chemistry.

Natural (mineral dust, sea salt) and anthropogenic (BC, OC, sulphate) aerosols, as well as gas phase chemistry, are now included in our standard atmospheric general circulation model. The system is driven with historical sea surface temperatures, and can also be “nudged” with “observed” winds. This allows us to examine sources of interannual variability in radiatively important tracer distributions and to directly compare with historical data. Future plans are to study radiative feedbacks, both direct and indirect, in our standard atmospheric general circulation model and to assess the response of natural aerosol sources to climate change. Our ultimate goal is the inclusion of a fully interactive gas and aerosol chemistry in the GFDL Climate and Earth System Models.

We have recently examined the impact of past land use practices on isoprene emissions and their impact on air quality. Future work will explore the possible changes in biogenic emissions of isoprene and NOx, forced by both land use and climate change. The impact of these changing emissions on air quality will be assessed. In another study, the potential benefits of methane emission controls for both climate and air quality are being quantified and the economic viability of specific methane emission control strategies are being assessed.

The current state of these projects, recent findings and future plans will be presented.