Biometeorology in tourism: Using thermal comfort classifications and weather-types to predict consumer behavior

Attendance decisions involving outdoor activities require that people understand and interpret the weather. One sector of the economy that is particularly vulnerable to the impact of weather conditions on its consumers is tourism, recreation, and leisure (TRL). Part of the TRL sector is comprised of zoos and aquariums. In 2012 zoos and aquariums contributed over $16 billion to the U.S. economy, supported 142,000 jobs and attracted 175 million visitors (AZA 2013). In this research I study the impacts of weather on daily visitor attendances at four U.S. metropolitan zoos, each with annual attendances typically exceeding one million visitors.

Because weather can impact visitor attendance in substantive ways, this research assesses how ambient environmental conditions coincide with attendances at zoological parks. Daily attendances are grouped in magnitude-typologies and evaluated with regard to thermal classifications and weather types. Visitor attendances at each zoo are paired with (1) the warmest biometeorologically-derived thermal category and (2) the Spatial Synoptic Classification. Biometeorological temperatures are defined with Hoppe's Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) which captures the physiological experience of an environment by equating the heat balance of the body in the tested environment to that which is experienced indoors under light activity. PET is one of the most commonly applied biometeorological indexes in outdoor tourism settings and is calculated with the RayMan model. After calculation, PET is classified into a nine-point thermal sensation scale derived by the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE). The nine categories of this scale are specified using the European baseline as defined by Matzarakis & Mayer. Daily SSC measurements are classified using the seven main weather types as defined by Sheridan.

Findings display general agreement in thermal preference and weather type for the highest attendance days across the diverse geographical study area. However, while there is general agreement for high-attendance days, there is disagreement among low-attendance days including varying thermal tolerances. There are also specific regional nuances when comparing results across zoos. This indicates that zoo management must take regional weather preferences and specific socio-cultural factors into account when forecasting future visitor-demand patterns. Conclusions of this research provide further insight into human behavioral responses to environmental stimuli. The results and methodologies are not limited to the study of zoological park visitation and can be applied in many contexts within the TRL sector with appropriate contextual alterations.