Development and Application to the Forecasting System of Indoor Environment in Cattle Shed

In the light of the increasing trend of the recent milk consumption in Rep. of Korea, a Cowshed Environment Forecasting(CEF) system has been developed. This system is operated through the following 2 steps: First, high-resolution atmospheric environment around the cowshed is predicted using the agro-meteorological analysis and forecasting(AMAF) system. It was developed by National institute of meteorological research of Rep. of Korea based on Weather Research and Forecasting model. And weather variables predicted for the next 12 hours are outputted as 333m resolution. In the second step, if the output of AMAF system applied to Energy Plus model, simulation of the indoor environmental factors reflecting heat exchange by the structure and material property of cattle shed is available. Therefore, CEF system is able to provide the extreme heat warning information fitted to not only workers but also cattle in the cowshed. And the daily milk yield is able to be inferred by the heat stress index of cattle(THI). The comparison results of milk yield observed in Anseong cattle ranch from 13 JUL 2013 to 9 MAR 2014 and milk yield derived from formula developed by NRC show that the derived milk yield reaches its peak when daily maximum temperature is 7°C(25.85kg/cattle), and it is underestimated about 10kg/cattle. Also, the mean derived milk yield is less than 6.4kg/cattle(prediction: 23.79kg/cattle, observation: 30.22kg/cattle). To find the well-fitted statistical model for actual milk yield, relations to the daily maximum temperature and THI are analyzed. As a result, 4-parameter Modified Gaussian model, which is reached peak between the thermal comfort range, simulates the milk yield ideally(Rt=0.7261, RTHI=0.6974). There is a little hard to universalize the model because it is still incomplete in the analyzed period aspect. However, it will helps to serving as the foundation of development for a domestic customized CEF system.

Acknowledgement This work was supported by the "Advanced Research on Applied Meteorology" of National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR) funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA).