Circulation Regimes Affiliated with Boreal Polar Marine Climate and Ecological Change

Polar marine climates and ecosystems are tremendously sensitive to changes in climatic conditions. In a recent study, Ballinger et al. (2013) mapped and analyzed the variability of polar marine (EM) climates globally, adapting criteria introduced by Shear (1964) as an addendum to Köppen's polar (E) climates. One of the primary findings from Ballinger et al. was that Northern Hemisphere EM climates have been decreasing in area, accounting for the overwhelming majority of global EM area decline from 1979-2010. However, climatic factors beyond the influence of summer sea surface temperatures and winter sea ice concentration have not been analyzed in detail as it relates to the observed hemispheric EM area change. In particular, any relationship between atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs) associated with the EM changes remains to be identified. This study will build on the aforementioned research by 1) quantifying the EM area changes from 1979-2012 in the North Atlantic and North Pacific respectively, 2) analyzing any EM changes with respect to CPs and their frequency of occurrence, derived from reanalysis variables, over these regions, and 3) relating CP results to ecological productivity, or lack thereof, in the EM zones. Emphasis will be placed on interannual and low frequency variability in determining what circulation patterns, if any, influence EM climate and ecological conditions beyond the established impacts of sea surface temperature and sea ice extent variability.