Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Livestock in Egypt

Egypt appears to be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of its dependence on the Nile River as the primary water source, its large traditional agricultural base, and its long coastline, already undergoing both intensifying development and erosion. The current evidence for livestock production in Egypt shows that temperature increases induce harmful heat stress impacts on animals' productivity. New animal diseases emerged in Egypt, and have strong negative impacts on livestock production i.e. the blue tongue disease and rift valley fever. Both are attributed to some observed changes in the Egyptian climate. The availability of fodder is subject to decrease due to climate change impacts on crops productivity, and higher competition for land and water resources between fodder and cereal crops. Also, projected rise in sea level in the Atlantic Ocean may have catastrophic impacts on Nile Delta region. The cost of adaptation to avoid this, however, may put a heavy burden on countries' GDPs. Livestock play a significant role in food production through the provision of high value protein-rich animal products; they indirectly support crop production through draught power and manure; and finally, they are the most significant source of income and store of wealth for smallholders Currently, livestock is one of the fastest growing agricultural sub-sectors in Egypt and takes an important share of natural resource use in agriculture. The impacts of climate change on animals' health and production under Egyptian conditions are not yet covered by scientific research (ESNC, 2010). Current evidence for livestock production shows that temperature increases induce harmful heat stress impacts on animals' productivity (IPCC, 2007 which varies according to the animal type, the husbandry type, and the animal initial condition (Kadah et al., 2008). New animal diseases emerged in Egypt, and have strong negative impacts on livestock production. These are the blue tongue disease and rift valley fever. Both are attributed to some observed changes in the Egyptian climate. The availability of fodder is subject to decrease due to climate change impacts on crops productivity, and higher competition for land and water resources between fodder and cereal crops In summary the main impacts of climate change on Egyptian agriculture sector are: • Temperature increases of 1.4°C and 2.5°C projected by 2050 and 2100 • See level rise (SLR) in Nile delta and all its projected impacts • Decrease in water supply as precipitation and water flow of Nile may decline due to climate change, meanwhile water demand will rise due to population growth. • Increase the gap between production and demand in food and feed as well as the competition between food and feed. • Decrease in production of main crops (wheat, maize, sorghum, barley, rice and soybean). • Direct and indirect impacts on livestock production. • Decline of agriculture self-sufficiency from 60% to 10%. The main objective of this assessment is to analyze the changing demands for livestock products under changing climate to identify the adaptation and mitigation policies and strategies for coping livestock production system with climate change.

The assessment main conclusions and recommendations are: The main effects are the decrease in livestock production under hot and cold climates due to a decrease in feed intake and increase in maintenance requirement under hot climate, while under cold climate they are due to a more increase in maintenance requirement than in feed intake. Heat stress affects all reproductive performance parameters e.g. puberty, spermatogenesis and semen quality, estrous cycle, fertilization, embryonic development and conception rate and fertility and hatchability of poultry eggs. It also increases livestock morbidity and mortality. The increase in morbidity is by increasing non-infectious diseases due to the decrease in livestock immunity, affecting feed availability and quality which decreases animal resistance and increase microbial insult as a result of behavioral thermoregulation. The most reliable mitigation policies for reducing GHG emissions from livestock are: • increasing grazing land productivity and nutrient management, • restoration of degraded lands, • improving livestock feeding practice and dietary additives, • animal breeding, • improving manure management (storage and handling, anaerobic digestion and use as nutrient source) and • bio-energy (biogas). The most feasible methane mitigation strategies are: • improving animal productivity to decrease the level of methane emissions per kg of animal product, • increasing concentrate level at high level of intake, • forage processing (grinding/pelleting), • forage species and maturity, • rotational grazing of animals, • use of high quality forage or pastures, • preservation of forage as silage, • fat supplementation in ratios and genetic selection. Adaptation options for coping livestock production system with climate change are discussed. A National Egyptian strategic plan for achieving self-sufficiency in livestock products with minimum effect on climate change is suggested.